In a comprehensive study of the trajectory of future oil prices and the implications for developing Asia, the report warns that Asia, as a net importer of primary energy, will be hit hard by a prolonged increase in the price of oil.
"High oil prices are here to stay, and the sooner that developing Asia wakes up to this reality the better," says Ifzal Ali, Chief Economist of the Manila-based multilateral development bank. "The past few years of robust growth in the face of rising oil prices should not delude us into believing that Asia’s growth prospects will be immune from the effects of expensive oil. Looking ahead, a prolonged elevation of oil prices would almost certainly have an adverse impact on Asia’s future growth."
The report notes that the current oil price surge, which began in 2003, is fundamentally different to previous oil shocks in the 1970s, which were caused by temporary supply disruptions. This time, it says, high oil prices have been mostly driven by surging demand and the inability of suppliers to keep pace.
Developing Asia’s breakneck growth and large appetite for imported energy has already had a significant impact on global oil prices, and the report predicts that the region, together with the Middle East, will continue to place upward pressure on oil prices into the future. Further, the report says, a reduction in surplus oil capacity caused by increased demand – alongside financial speculators betting on higher oil prices – will lead to even greater price volatility in the oil market.
While the report forecasts that higher output and weaker demand will push down prices slightly in the short term, as is now happening, prices will start to soar again in the next decade due to a sustained gap between supply and demand.
Dr. Ali says that the report’s long-term oil forecasts should sound a warning to developing Asia’s policymakers.
"Developing Asia’s oil consumption is three times as high as its oil production and so it cannot afford to ignore the findings of this report. Failure to act today will have larger costs tomorrow. Painful but necessary adjustments will have to be made in the areas of macroeconomic policy as well as energy policy. Above all, policymakers should use a carrot-and-stick approach of subsidies and taxes to encourage the region’s firms and consumers to use oil more efficiently. A welcome trend in this respect is the phase-out of fuel subsidies and price control already underway in the region," Dr. Ali says.
